NPD has released its Consumer Technology Black Friday week sales data, and based on my analysis I think the most reasonable conclusion is to view the results as a glass being half full. Yes, the overall sales (in dollars) were down, but the pockets of strength we saw were surprising, and in my view encouraging, at least if are willing to look beyond Dec 25th.
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Having just returned from my annual Black Friday morning shopping trip I am struggling to suppress a yawn. Not just because I got up at 2:45AM, but because I have to confess, once again, that I just didn’t see anything as I shopped today that either changes my general outlook on the holiday for tech or provides a window into how aggressively consumers may be shopping for electronics. As I said last year, giving away highly-desirable products in limited quantities for outrageously low prices is always going to draw a crowd. However, at some point you begin to bump into the realities of installed bases, low prices, and relevancy. This year’s struggle to determine what the most relevant, most exciting products to sell was especially acute and I believe will lead to lackluster results, similar to what we’ve seen all year.
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NPD’s Weekly Tracking Service showed consumer technology revenue for the 2009 five week holiday period was down slightly less than 1 percent, year-over-year. While that result is far from the halcyon days of the mid-decade, it is a far better performance than 2008’s 6 percent decline. The real highlight though is a tale of two categories, PCs and TVs. PC sales were as strong as we have ever seen, with notebook unit volume up almost 70 percent and desktops (yes, desktops !!!) up nearly 30 percent. TVs, on the other hand, were a drag on revenue growth despite a 30 percent increase in unit volume.
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On Monday NPD released consumer technology results to our weekly data clients for the third week of the holiday season and so far sales results are tracking at, or a little better than, our pre-holiday expectations. Prior to the holiday we expected sales dollars to fall between 0 and negative 5 percent for the holiday period. For the first two initial periods we reported on, November sales and Black Friday week sales, revenue has been slightly stronger. With November monthly sales rising less than 1 percent from 2008 due to the strength of sales early in the month, and Black Friday sales falling just 1.2 percent, the trend line has been favoring a closer to flat holiday than our worst case negative expectation.
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Consumer Technology | Stephen Baker, Vice President, Industry Analysis | 
December 8, 2010 5:16 pm | 
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