Which got me thinking about the teens.

No, not those teens, rather the time between now and 2020. We’ve seen forecasts about 3D TV adoption, content in the clouds, touch, and super high speed broadband. Here are a few musings readers can save for a few years, until the next decade dawns. They’re mostly about music, but a few insights are also relevant for books, games, or movies.

1) Paid is the new free. The trend toward free or “freemium” will come to an unhappy end. Someone a lot smarter than I am will figure out the right platform for delivering content, especially music, to a mass market — and find a way to monetize its distribution. The experiments with unpaid (or “b”ad-supported) distribution will come to an end only when content creators and owners, and the people they support (managers, producers, even caterers) realize there isn’t a future to be found there. It’s unclear whether the solution will involve blanket licenses, subscription models or hardware and service bundles, but pay we will. Except of course for the few incorrigibles who will continue to trade illegally — but that’s another story.

2) Digital rights management (DRM) lives! “Music doesn’t want to be free”? (Whoever wrote that makes a living writing about music and not creating or selling it). Protecting content from massive sharing somehow became passé in recent years. Consumers have a reasonable expectation of fair use for their content, and creators have a reasonable expectation that copyright will be respected. Movies and games are protected;, so why not music? In the coming years new DRM schemes will be created that will allow us the flexibility to use content where we want to, whenever we want to, and on all the devices we own. It will be the content-owner’s option to unlock the DRM and permit massive distribution.

3) The Kings — After the passing of Michael Jackson pundits claimed there will never be another “King.” They are wrong. From Jolson to Sinatra, Elvis to The Beatles, there’s always a king. The savior is out there somewhere. We’re way overdue for something new; a captivating artist and genre that will seize our imaginations with both talent and celebrity.

And if the first two predictions come true, there will be enough of an industry to nurture, promote and compensate “The King”.

When I saw the hole in the end cap, my reaction was “great, people are buying music,” but that initial thought quickly gave way to pain. Here was some of the most valuable real estate in the store, an end cap, with a gaping empty space. One important point of an end cap is to stimulate impulse purchasing, so an out-of-stock entirely defeats the purpose.

How, with today’s sophisticated inventory systems, could a store ever be out of stock on a chart-topping title? Why does it matter? We know that 25 percent of CD buyers who can’t find what they want don’t buy anything- anywhere. And it’s not just music. Nearly two out of three Blu-ray Discs are bought as “destination” purchases; out-of-stocks will send your shoppers elsewhere, and I’d suspect the same is true for gamers looking for the hottest releases. At a time when retailers are desperate to attract and retain shoppers, adequate stock of the top titles seems like a reasonably easy way to help the cause.

“In department stores these days, Eileen Fisher clothes ‘get marked down before they even have a chance to sell,’ she told me recently. Perhaps it no longer makes sense to give Saks, Bloomingdales and other department stores so much control over the brand, she posited. She has asked her staff to consider a new model: renting department-store space in order to control prices and inventory.”

What if music sellers, video distributors, and game publishers could rent their shelf space from retailers? The question may, of course, be moot. After all, it’s hard to imagine all of the sellers cooperating on leased space. It’s equally difficult to imagine separate kiosks for EMI, Sony, Universal, MGM, and Nintendo, not too mention the various independent labels. But imagine if “Mother Entertainment” could really own that space, and manage the assortment, the pricing, the presentation. Could we slow or even reverse the decline of CDs and DVDs, hasten the adoption of Blu-ray, and optimize games sales? Perhaps there’s an expanded role for kiosks, ala the very successful Redbox model.

The WSJ article also discusses “scalpel pricing,” in which a company slashes prices on slow sellers, while maintaining a premium price for the top sellers. Brilliant! I don’t understand the deep discounting of new releases, which supposedly drives impulse purchasing. It seems to me that Green Day fans who want the group’s latest CD would gladly pay a few extra bucks to get it during its initial week of release. I’m an unapologetic fan of premium pricing for new releases, and of compelling discounts on catalog titles or promotional bundles geared toward increasing register ring.

Over time, the aging process for packaged entertainment will be accelerated by cutbacks from many retailers; in the form of less space, less appealing floor positions, and less funding and effort exerted on product presentation.

And that’s not a great place to be. After all despite the digital revolution, brick-and-mortar retail stores are still a primary place for product discovery, so the de-emphasis on space and merchandising simply accelerates the product’s death spiral, as less selection and less promotion translates to fewer reasons to shop the section.

Ultimately a lot of the solutions distributors are using to survive the transition from physical to digital rely on a significant amount of retailer cooperation. You can’t blame retailers for maximizing the value of every square foot of selling space. Perhaps the entertainment industry needs to take back control of their physical distribution while forging new models for the digital age.

According to NPD’s consumer music tracking studies, Apple users are, for the most, part oblivious to the DRM, because most can burn media files enough times for use in their home or car CD player, plus the tracks work seamlessly on Apple’s iPods, which remain the top-selling media player brand in the U.S. In essence, for Apple users DRM means “Doesn’t Really Matter.” Better sound quality is a bonus, though — and while it’s difficult to distinguish on a portable player, it’s certainly noticeable on home stereos and other devices.

Pricing, though, is always a controversial area for consumers. Apple was ingenious in using flat 99-cent pricing to introduce iTunes in 2003, because digital music was relatively new and there was no chance of consumer confusion. The $.99 per track was a fair price when compared to equivalent per-song costs on CDs and at $9.99 iTunes albums cost less than the average CD. Although most song tracks will still be priced at 99 cents, iTunes’ new variable pricing model also offers songs for $1.29 and 69 cents. The latest tracks from popular artists will tend to cost more, and older catalog titles will often cost less.

There are lingering worries that switching to variable pricing might cause consumers to migrate from iTunes, in favor of AmazonMP3, or perhaps they will stop purchasing paid digital music altogether. I predict that Apple will, at least in the near term, hold on to its customer base and possibly even increase revenue from song downloads.

Thanks to the primacy of the iPod, iTunes continues to boast an overwhelming share of digital music sales. Customers are pleased with the Apple ecosystem — and $1.29 is not an outrageous price to pay for a must-have song track, especially when you can offset that premium cost by downloading other songs by the same artist or within the same genre for less.

Apple has still more aces up their sleeves. Most music that consumers load on their iPods doesn’t come from iTunes; it comes from their own music collections — from borrowed or purchased CDs, and for some from peer-to-peer (P2P) file sharing sites. What’s important is that the overwhelming software choice for managing all of that content is iTunes. Regardless of whether a consumer has ever actually purchased a music download, most digital music consumers still likely manage their music libraries using iTunes. And very few will switch to something else, because iTunes works very well as a music management tool.

The genius behind Apple isn’t just its iTunes Music Store, or its selection of TV shows, or the ubiquitous iPod — It’s the iTunes Gift Card. Over 40 percent of recent digital music purchases have been with gift cards, and the vast majority of gift-card purchases link to iTunes. It’s not uncommon to see nearly two-thirds of teen iTunes purchases source to a gift card. And, let’s face it, many consumers look at the face value of the gift card, rather than the cost of each song they’re purchasing. These cards are more common than CDs these days, and they are a powerful customer loyalty tool.

My bet is that Apple will hold onto its customers and any early grumbling about prices will be short-lived. Too many aspects of the iTunes/iPod digital music model are bullet proof, at least for the time being. The trend we’ll be watching is whether the new tracks at a premium price coupled with ‘bargain” catalog will have the desired effect of improving the overall spend of digital music buyers.

Spiral Frog was a music download service, once feted by The New York Times as a possible major competitor to iTunes. They had a seemingly ingenious concept, which seems pedestrian today: Ad-supported music downloads.

Rather than buying a song track using a credit or gift card, you’d visit the site and be exposed to advertising in exchange for a handful of song downloads. Periodically you’d need to return to the site and view more advertising to renew your license for the songs. It seemed like a good deal, and because it was all properly licensed music, it was safer than getting songs from a file sharing network. Plus, the renewal aspect added stickiness to the site.

So, why did it fail? There was a lot of insider intrigue surrounding the company’s management, and there was a huge financing burden for licensing and royalty fees involved in the start-up’s business model. But the lessons of Spiral Frog aren’t all that complicated and most apply to other companies currently selling digital music, video, or gaming:

1) The library was incomplete. Consumers expect virtually unlimited libraries of content and don’t want to piece it together themselves. Spiral Frog hadn’t licensed all the major record-label content.

2) It’s got to synch with how consumers use content. You couldn’t put these downloads on an iPod, and you couldn’t burn them to a CD to play in your car. Enough said.

3) Most of us have never heard of Spiral Frog, or Ruckus, or iMeem, or CinemaNow. There’s a difference between services that offer brand name licensed music, movies, and games, and those that offer user generated content. Pitching licensed content requires patience, connections, and funding, not just an intriguing idea. These services may have loyal users but they lack the broad awareness that makes them appealing to advertisers, record labels, or game and movie studios.

The failure of every brick and mortar record store gets the media’s attention these days, but I’d guess as many (or more) digital entertainment services have flopped over the past few years. Add SpiralFrog to the list of names you may have heard of (like Yahoo Music, Urge, Virgin Digital) and some you haven’t (Cliq, Ecast, Cductive). Each suffered from some combination of flaws in a business where consumers expect a flawless experience.

Sitting on my couch, sans tux, with the surround sound on, a wave of hope came over me. The show was pretty good. It had performances everyone could appreciate, regardless of age or musical tastes. I’ve seen Paul McCartney a bunch of times, but he never ceases to send a chill down my spine. It was nice watching my younger daughter sing along to “I Saw Her Standing There.”

Coldplay rocked, and although I don’t really understand the allure of Miley Cyrus or the Jonas Brothers, the kids certainly do. Justin Timberlake is a first-class performer, and Carrie Underwood’s guitarist belongs in the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame. Admittedly my kids wondered who the old dude that kept collecting trophies was: That’s “Mister Plant” to you, kid. And as long as Katy Perry keeps kissing people, I’ll keep watching. Best of all, the ratings soared across a wide demographic band, which proves the old industry adage that “content is king, but quality content is the kingdom.”

And then the proverbial light bulb clicked on:

Forget social networking and micro-marketing. Bring back the TV variety show but in an entirely new form; a souped-up American Idol that the entire family can enjoy. Use the latest technologies to ensure active viewer participation and create revenue streams. I wonder how much music Ed Sullivan, Andy Williams, Glen Campbell, or Sonny and Cher helped to promote and sell in the ‘60s and ‘70s. While videos on MTV may have killed a lot of radio stars in the ‘80s, they also sold a lot of music and launched many new careers.

The Smothers Brothers are still around, and so is Cher. Why not team them up with Justin, Akon, or Britney to reach the lucrative boomer and millennial audiences. The networks should love the idea. If nothing else production costs would be a fraction of those spent for an episode of “CSI” or “Desperate Housewives.” But while the variety format is a dinosaur, the updated show has got to be modern – and should leverage the Web, to boot. It should also include at-home voting, contests, texting, Twittering, purchase links to iTunes or AmazonMP3, surprise celebrity appearances, and merchandise and concert ticket sales. And the shows could reside forever on Hulu and You Tube. Upload the performances to the digital stores on the same day, in audio and music video format. Be sure to include the backstage video and “making of” scenes that consumers love, to create even more connection with the artists, and more revenue opportunities. Include emerging artists and “baby bands” with a Dick Clark “Rate The Record” contest where winners get to come back in later shows.

With artists turning to branding partnerships to replace waning CD sales, sell ads for the products the artists are pitching and give the labels a cut of the commercial revenue.

Above all it should be participatory “lean forward” programming that keeps them coming back.

Imagine one network having success; then another copies the format; then another. Soon CDs are back in stores, iPods once again fly off store shelves, and band T-shirts become de rigueur on casual Friday.

OK, that’s crazy talk but there’s one fundamental question . . .

. . . Would you watch it?

Like many I had a bone to pick with Muzak, as I considered it an outrage that “All You Need Is Love” or “Dazed and Confused” could be performed by the Serbian National Orchestra and fed to the public, in order to encourage them to buy more wheat bread.

Is nothing sacred?

So what if Muzak goes silent? As I shopped at the grocery store last week, it occurred to me the music industry can use every touch point possible to remind us of a song, get us to hum a tune, and maybe even think about buying a CD or song download. Muzak isn’t as cool as MySpace Music or iTunes, but when an industry is losing millions of shoppers, cool doesn’t matter. It just comes down to what’s putting tunes in consumers’ heads, so they might consider buying the song or album.

If there’s no more elevator music, I wonder: Will more people ask me about the weather, or my breakfast, rather than just staring at the numbers rolling past? Someday maybe we’ll wish for the days when we could just hum along to Henry Mancini’s version of “Thriller.”

It was an impulse purchase. I stopped at Borders for a book and wandered into the CD selection. Then I recalled hearing something on XM, and decided to look for a particular artist. And there it was: A greatest hits compilation with every song I’d possibly want, so I picked it up. While I was on the way out, I peeked into a bargain bin and saw another classic album, so I got that one, too.

The entire register ring was $24 plus tax. That’s more than the average iTunes customer spends in six months. It’s difficult to buy a CD these days. Many brick-and-mortar music stores have closed, and entertainment chains are shrinking. Other retailers have sharply downsized the category, making it hard to find anything but the few top sellers. Racks aren’t well organized and signage suffers. Some customers buy online, but many more simply have stopped trying.

You can blame digital downloads, but three times as many people buy CDs as buy digital songs. Or blame piracy, yet most of us have never illegally downloaded a song. Do CDs cost too much? I’ll listen to this music for years, in my car, on my PC, and iPod. To me these CDs were a terrific value.

Perhaps everyone overreacted when CD sales dipped a bit a few years ago. Maybe the format wasn’t dead but just needed a shot in the arm.

Instead, it got shot in the head.

Besides the sliding economy, the number one reason consumers don’t buy CDs is satisfaction with the collection they already have. It isn’t pricing, or piracy, or MySpace, or time spent with Wii. It’s apathy. Borders had a good music selection, sensible signage, fair prices, and the store was well lit. They obviously wanted me to shop.

As new technologies for entertainment content emerge, and as new distribution options take hold, it is critically important that the transitions are sensible. There’s no excuse for letting apathy set in, especially for entertainment categories. The marketer’s job is to crack through that complacency, and get consumers to keep listening, watching, discovering, or playing.

It starts with the distributors and ends at retail. It involves drawing shoppers to the section through merchandising that carries an impact. You must be committed to knowing your shoppers, offering them a compelling selection, making products easy to find, and creating news value and excitement. This isn’t a story about CDs. It is about managing change, rather than letting change manage you.