Sri Peruvemba, VP of Marketing at EInk, cited the accuracy of DisplaySearch’s forecasts for e-paper as he told a compelling story about the wide array of e-readers we’ve seen introduced since the debut of the Sony Reader, particularly outside the U.S.

During the Q&A session, one attendee acknowledged the potential for these products to enable “a library in your pocket” as transformative for developing nations. Sri also noted that the arrival of textbooks for e-readers, which are seen by many as the key to driving strong growth beyond leisure readers, is coming sooner rather than later.

On the other hand, he was nonplussed about the iPad, falling back on the superior readability and battery life of e-paper. He also noted that the forthcoming Apple slate would be much heavier than a typical e-reader - a factor that consumers would feel as they tried to hold the device in one hand for extended sessions.

As noted in NPD’s e-Reader’s Snapshot report last year, consumers interested in e-readers want content such as newspapers and magazines. These publications’ need for color, interactive multimedia, and video were cited as opportunities by Brian Gally, senior product director for Qualcomm MEMS Technologies, which has developed the Mirasol display.

While a Mirasol device prototype I saw at the show was certainly impressive, what was even more impressive was the best-in-class battery life improvements the company claims we will see for these devices. These claims will be put to the test soon, as Qualcomm notes that we’ll see products using Mirasol displays launch before the end of the year. For EInk’s part, Sri countered that it would offer color e-paper products before the end of the year, and that it had video working in the labs.

In my questions following the presentations, panelists addressed how cash-strapped publishers would be able to afford investing in reinventing their magazines developing expensive video and multimedia assets, and how the greater content consumption demands would affect the free cellular access that has helped to enable the Kindle’s success.

There were no clear answers, but both men expressed great confidence that a wide array of display opportunities ranging from power-hungry high-volume handsets to large flexible digital signage would provide plenty of room to maneuver around the LCD juggernaut. Indeed, in their worlds, the future is so bright one will need a reflective display.

We have certainly seen large retailers buy into these kinds of services before, such as Best Buy’s nascent acquisition of Napster in 2008. Since then, Roxio snapped up CinemaNow, which also offered a mix of models of obtaining video-on-demand, but Vudu was further along in its ties to consuming content on televisions and thus a more robust competitor to DVDs and Blu-ray discs, particularly with its relatively high video quality. Vudu had also emerged as one of the key alternatives to Netflix for digital viewing, and its lack of a subscription requirement has made it more palatable to studios for digital distribution of movies day-and-date with the DVD/Blu-ray version.

As I blogged before regarding the Barnes & Noble Nook, there are untapped opportunities for retailers to more tightly tie digital distribution with the in-store experience. While Vudu currently doesn’t support mobile devices that consumers could physically bring to Walmart stores, consumers could rent an older catalog title via Vudu and get a discount coupon to pick up the modern remake on Blu-ray in the store.

At first I admit, I didn’t take any pictures. I was being careful not to fall down and crush the camera with my fancy helmet (skiing safety has clearly been upgraded since the 80s). Then I realized the kids weren’t going to jump off of the ski lift and I was going to live through the day without cracking a bone, so I relaxed enough to take a few cute shots of them on their rides up the bunny slope lift.

Then I got a text from my friend whose son was with us, asking for some pictures and a video of her son that we could send to her mom who was very ill and in the hospital. Frankly, I hadn’t even thought of the smartphone as a capture device for the day, but for this occasion, my idea of the smartphone image quality as “questionably good enough” turned into a small miracle as I shot the little guy zooming down on his snowboard. I emailed video and pictures right to his grandmother’s hospital room where she was suddenly not isolated and bedridden, but on a sunny mountain watching her grandson flying by.

As the day went on we traded back and forth among the cameras, the flash camcorder, and the phone, depending on who was with the kids, who had taken off their skis, and was taking a rest because their ski boots were killing them. Of course there are other options to the way I captured and shared images that day. I could have been more “prepared” with waterproof, shockproof, freeze proof, and wifi with a different camera and memory card. But, in this one case, none of that mattered. The cameras and camcorder were there to help us remember and celebrate later, in a beautiful glossy photo book or in full HD on a huge flat-screen. But the value of a simple image and a video to transport an experience as it was happening, to someone who wasn’t able to enjoy it in person, was real and unexpected joy.

Photography is not just about great image quality and aspiring to a perfect shot, but what it means to the recipient, how it can change a day, how it changes lives, and connections. That’s what this business has always been about; new technology enabling us to do it better every day. And you don’t even need to wear a helmet.

Furthermore, with its 9.7” screen, the iPad does not fit into most definitions of a MID (Mobile Internet Device) that have typically been between 4” and 7”. That said, the iPad will face some of the challenges that have plagued MIDs as another attempt at a “tweener” device. That challenge is how it competes against less expensive fixed-function devices such as portable game consoles, portable DVD players, digital picture frames, e-readers and portable media players when it is more expensive than many of these.

While the iPad, unlike Apple’s handhelds, hasn’t grown out of an established category, it will address some of these competitors by secondary, contextual functionality. For example, nobody would spend $500 for a digital picture frame, but the iPad can serve that role when it is otherwise idle. The iPad also has a fair shot at doing to the portable DVD player what the iPod did to the Walkman and offers unique gaming and e-reading experiences. And while it has significant promise for use as a multifunction rear-seat video player, its size actually precludes it form competing with a number of devices, such as portable navigation devices, where its smaller siblings compete.

The iPad crystallizes the opportunity for embedded mobile multifunction devices. To win against dedicated devices, they must fill a critical mass of needs well enough to justify the price premium. With the iPad’s app portfolio, developer attention, and Apple’s distribution, it has one of the best chances to date of making that case.

In conclusion, this should signal the death of the whole slate/pad/tablet concept, and now Apple has put a stake in the heart of that concept. However at $499, with its media directed functionality, it could make a play for the companion computing market the PC world discovered in 2009 with the netbook. And with unit volumes for notebooks and netbooks up 60 percent during the holiday season according to NPD’s Retail Tracking Service, there is a huge unit opportunity for Apple that they have now chosen to attack.

Indeed, one of the few tablets to debut at the show is designed to be shipped as part of a more traditional device. The Lenovo U1 won accolades for its design in which a tablet computer detaches from a netbook form factor and can function independently. It’s a Windows-based netbook in clamshell mode and a Linux-based Web appliance in slate mode. While the device cleverly subsumes the tablet into the netbook purchase, it does so at a price of close to #1,000. That could be at least as expensive as buying two devices anyway.

This year’s CES stalemate reminded one of a CES three years ago when, more than 400 miles west of Las Vegas, Steve Jobs promised to reinvent the telephone with the release of the iPhone. That set off a frenzy in which rivals first tried to match the iPhone’s look and input methods, and later its capabilities and application support. Now, the company that goes first is setting itself up for arrows in his back. But unlike in the folk tale of William Tell, those arrows will be coming from an Apple, not toward it.

And to reinforce that notion, this year’s trends were not products likely to pay the bills in 2010.  In 2009 netbooks were all the rage and clearly they were focused on paying the bills that year.  We didn’t have that focus this year.  But for 2010 3DTV and tablets are not likely to be mainstream devices, although certainly tablets (in the broadest sense of the word) will be in more consumers hands by the end of the year than 3DTVs, and have more impact in 2010 as well.  Longer term, a healthy TV hardware market, leveraging growing and innovative content, and distribution platforms will be the number one factor in returning the CE business to a more healthy and stable growth rate than we have seen in the past.

Desktops, along with camcorders, were the two big surprise hit holiday categories. Growth in desktops, while surprising, wasn’t completely out of the blue, since sales have been strong since the release of Windows 7. Notebooks were the best performing big category of 2009 as consumers and retailers have been focused on mobility as a huge growth opportunity. Despite the price deflating impact of netbooks, unit growth throughout 2009, but especially during this holiday season, was more than enough to offset those falling prices to generate positive revenues. Full-size notebooks were mightily impacted by the rise of netbooks with ASPs falling to remain competitive. In fact, this holiday season we saw upwards of 95 percent of all full-size notebooks sell for less than $800.

Camcorder results, driven especially by low-cost flash models under $300, posted unit increases of 50 percent and double-digit revenue increases as well. Increases in distribution, aggressive promotion, and an increase in the brands and SKUs available at retail all played into this impressive result. What makes this more impressive is that camcorders have been a very slow growth category for a number years, characterized by rapid technology changes (tape to DVD to HDD in rapid succession) and the conventional wisdom holds that video on the phone is good enough for most people. Apparently that is not quite accurate.

Televisions were a drag on overall results as, unlike the notebook segment, falling prices failed to spur enough demand to generate positive revenue. Of course that was nothing new for flat-panel sales in 2009 where the vast majority of the monthly results showed negative year-over-year revenue trends. During the holiday season, 32-inch LCD was the clear winner showing growth of more than 50 percent in units and slightly more than 10 percent in revenue. In comparison, larger screens exhibited extremely poor results. Every product type range above 40 inches (with the exception of plasma over 54 inches but including 40-42 inch LCD, 46-47 inch LCD, over 50-inch LCD, 42-inch plasma, and 50-inch plasma) showed year-over-year revenue declines for the holiday season.

All-in-all there just wasn’t a lot to crow about when looking at 2009 holiday results, unless you are comparing to 2008. Then in that case this past holiday season fulfilled all your wishes, hopes, and dreams (and then some).

With three weeks of holiday shopping concluded we can report that sales continue to track along these same lines. While we aren’t going to report specific numbers here we can say that total sales volumes, in dollars, are tracking around flat levels ( for complete holidays sales results come see us at our Just the Facts session in conjunction with CEA on January 7). As we noted in our November press release, we have seen some improving performances among the group of large categories that sit below PCs and TVs in volume levels. Segments such as DSLR, point-and-shoot digital cameras, wireless networking, multi-function printers, and camcorders are performing better than earlier in the year, providing a solid boost to the overall industry volumes.

Among the two largest categories, flat-panel TVs and PCs, we continue to see performance moving in opposite directions. While unit volume growth has remained in double-digits, the pressure from the slide in ASPs has continued to force revenue growth into negative territory. PCs, on the other hand, have been the growth story in holiday 2009, helping to keep the overall market for consumer technology revenue stable. Despite the same level of precipitous price declines that we saw in November and on Black Friday, notebook computers have continued to deliver revenue increases comparable to what we saw during those earlier periods. Of course, the falling ASPs have also generated enormous unit increases as well. Desktops have also remained on the same strong growth path we noted during November adding further strength to the PC market.

As we said, overall technology sales seem to be tracking towards a flat revenue growth year, probably a result better than anyone might have anticipated three months ago. However, with the two most important selling weeks yet to report there remains enough uncertainty to question where the final results will end up.

See you in Vegas, when we sum up the holiday results, and don’t forget to join us at our reception on the first night of CES at the Bellagio.

There are a couple of reasons why we expect this snowstorm to have a limited impact. First, and foremost, the calendar is kind to retail this year (as was the snow). With Christmas falling on a Friday the industry has an entire week of shopping days to give consumers time to catch up. And anecdotal reports are that consumers have already been out in droves on Monday to catch up on the missed shopping days. Here in Northern Virginia, where I live and where 20 inches of snow easily overwhelms both the residents and the transportation infrastructure, there were reports of gridlock at area malls including waits of 60 minutes to exit mall parking lots

The second reason is the high percentage of online shopping that occurs in Tech. Snowbound this year did not mean cut-off this year. Online retailers and brick and mortar retail sites jumped on the disruption caused by the snowstorm to increase email to consumers, offering shipping deals, and fast delivery to make up for the lost shopping opportunity of last weekend to help ensure that consumers gift choices would make it in time for the holiday. This targeted electronics marketing only adds to our conviction, as we expressed in our Black Friday Report this year, that ecommerce continues to make a real dent into the consumers perception of how, when, and where they shop for the holiday.