The New Technology Elite
Thursday, January 19th, 2012
By Stephen Baker, Vice President, Industry Analysis
Reflecting on the just concluded CES is an analyst ritual, although normally one I choose not to participate in. Too many gadgets to see, too many booths to comprehend, too much information for one person to absorb. And I spend more time off the floor with clients and retailers than I do wandering the aisles of South Hall.
But this year I feel like I actually have something to add to the discussion. CES, to me, is a lot like NPD’s point-of-sale (POS) data, incredibly useful for managing the day-to-day necessities of the marketplace, but just as valuable in providing insight into the longer-term trends and strategies that make the CE business so dynamic. While it’s possible to follow all the items being introduced and use the information to understand what is relevant today (just like tracking market share or following the sales progression of a SKU or an attribute can be in NPD’s data) it’s a lot harder to see underneath the data (or the gadgets) and see what the data (or the tradeshow) says about the future. This year my one big takeaway is how the power of the industry has shifted. Not just away from the TV, or the traditional CE products, and not just away from the long-time dominant Japanese CE or U.S. IT companies, but towards two new loci in the industry.
First, if anyone walked into Central Hall you would have thought you were in Korea. The two dominant brands on the floor were Samsung and LG. Not just because they had among the biggest, splashiest booths but because they seemed to contain pretty much every product in the CE world and beyond, from PCs to freezers, from digital speaker docks, to TVs and sound systems. They had the most futuristic displays and the most eye-popping presentations of new technologies, although in fairness they do choose to display all this technology, other companies may have equally cool stuff but keep it under wraps. NPD’s data has tracked the growth of these two companies for many years and both, especially Samsung, have accelerated their share gains across a host of categories in the past year. It is easy to see why when one sees their demonstrations of today’s technology and tomorrow’s innovations they appear poised to continue to grow.
The second revelation is that while brands are obviously important, this year it felt like most of the noise and excitement at CES came from the supply chain and not the brand owners. Intel and ultrabooks, Android phones powered by Google, Windows Phones, Windows 8, amazing new screen technology from Samsung and LG’s display technology companies, and giant screens from Sharp’s fabs were all the rage and generated most of the interest.
That is why it is more interesting as to why Microsoft gave up its starring slot at CES, just as the power in the industry appears to be moving back towards the supply chain and away from the customer facing brands. It appears to me that next year’s keynote could just as likely come from Intel or Google as it could from any consumer brand. The torch has definitely been passed and the CE business is changing and, as always, CES provides a great reflection of where the next generation of technology elite will come from.
Consumer Technology | Stephen Baker, Vice President, Industry Analysis | 
January 19, 2012 8:35 am
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