The Teens

Thursday, January 21st, 2010
By Russ Crupnick, Vice President, Senior Industry Analyst

Having come back from the holidays and CES to a mailbox full of “Decade In Review” articles in my email in-box, I decided to jump on board. From the dawn of digital music, through iPod nation, Wii, High Definition, social networking, and smartphones (with apps), it may have been an unparalleled ten years for entertainment.

Which got me thinking about the teens.

No, not those teens, rather the time between now and 2020. We’ve seen forecasts about 3D TV adoption, content in the clouds, touch, and super high speed broadband. Here are a few musings readers can save for a few years, until the next decade dawns. They’re mostly about music, but a few insights are also relevant for books, games, or movies.

1) Paid is the new free. The trend toward free or “freemium” will come to an unhappy end. Someone a lot smarter than I am will figure out the right platform for delivering content, especially music, to a mass market — and find a way to monetize its distribution. The experiments with unpaid (or “b”ad-supported) distribution will come to an end only when content creators and owners, and the people they support (managers, producers, even caterers) realize there isn’t a future to be found there. It’s unclear whether the solution will involve blanket licenses, subscription models or hardware and service bundles, but pay we will. Except of course for the few incorrigibles who will continue to trade illegally — but that’s another story.

2) Digital rights management (DRM) lives! “Music doesn’t want to be free”? (Whoever wrote that makes a living writing about music and not creating or selling it). Protecting content from massive sharing somehow became passé in recent years. Consumers have a reasonable expectation of fair use for their content, and creators have a reasonable expectation that copyright will be respected. Movies and games are protected;, so why not music? In the coming years new DRM schemes will be created that will allow us the flexibility to use content where we want to, whenever we want to, and on all the devices we own. It will be the content-owner’s option to unlock the DRM and permit massive distribution.

3) The Kings — After the passing of Michael Jackson pundits claimed there will never be another “King.” They are wrong. From Jolson to Sinatra, Elvis to The Beatles, there’s always a king. The savior is out there somewhere. We’re way overdue for something new; a captivating artist and genre that will seize our imaginations with both talent and celebrity.

And if the first two predictions come true, there will be enough of an industry to nurture, promote and compensate “The King”.

1 Comment

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  By Michel Lacaille, January 28, 2010 @ 7:06 pm

  If you have been at CES, it’s easy to realise that Pay IS NOT the new free. Free is growing at a faster pace than ever. Institutions offering little or no value to consumers, like Sony Music are under attack and they responded with desperate propaganda.
  Free has been around forever and will be around forever. Today it’s nurtured by a young astute generation. Only value propositions gets rewarded.
  The Roman Emperors used free, the apothicary used free and Gilette still uses it. Free is often disquised, it takes various forms, and it’s not always free in the end but only if it adds value.
  Free will not go away, someone always want it’s unfair share of the pie… and will do whatever it takes to get it.

  Information and knowledge is free.

  “Patent laws” are more under the gun than free. Today, anyone armed with an army of lawyers can patent the obvious and the rediculous and wait for his opportunity to sue. This raises prices, reduces competitivity and prevents “true”innovation. … and “patents”are not respected everywhere. Free countries will imitate and prevail.

  Protecting “true” and “valuable” content is not a challenge. Recognizing the contribution of an author is not a problem.

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