Bland Holiday Sales Results So Far Are Actually Good News
Wednesday, December 23rd, 2009
By Stephen Baker, Vice President, Industry Analysis
On Monday NPD released consumer technology results to our weekly data clients for the third week of the holiday season and so far sales results are tracking at, or a little better than, our pre-holiday expectations. Prior to the holiday we expected sales dollars to fall between 0 and negative 5 percent for the holiday period. For the first two initial periods we reported on, November sales and Black Friday week sales, revenue has been slightly stronger. With November monthly sales rising less than 1 percent from 2008 due to the strength of sales early in the month, and Black Friday sales falling just 1.2 percent, the trend line has been favoring a closer to flat holiday than our worst case negative expectation.
With three weeks of holiday shopping concluded we can report that sales continue to track along these same lines. While we aren’t going to report specific numbers here we can say that total sales volumes, in dollars, are tracking around flat levels ( for complete holidays sales results come see us at our Just the Facts session in conjunction with CEA on January 7). As we noted in our November press release, we have seen some improving performances among the group of large categories that sit below PCs and TVs in volume levels. Segments such as DSLR, point-and-shoot digital cameras, wireless networking, multi-function printers, and camcorders are performing better than earlier in the year, providing a solid boost to the overall industry volumes.
Among the two largest categories, flat-panel TVs and PCs, we continue to see performance moving in opposite directions. While unit volume growth has remained in double-digits, the pressure from the slide in ASPs has continued to force revenue growth into negative territory. PCs, on the other hand, have been the growth story in holiday 2009, helping to keep the overall market for consumer technology revenue stable. Despite the same level of precipitous price declines that we saw in November and on Black Friday, notebook computers have continued to deliver revenue increases comparable to what we saw during those earlier periods. Of course, the falling ASPs have also generated enormous unit increases as well. Desktops have also remained on the same strong growth path we noted during November adding further strength to the PC market.
As we said, overall technology sales seem to be tracking towards a flat revenue growth year, probably a result better than anyone might have anticipated three months ago. However, with the two most important selling weeks yet to report there remains enough uncertainty to question where the final results will end up.
See you in Vegas, when we sum up the holiday results, and don’t forget to join us at our reception on the first night of CES at the Bellagio.
Tags: Black Friday, CES, holiday sales, November sales, PCs, TVs
Consumer Technology | Stephen Baker, Vice President, Industry Analysis | 
December 23, 2009 4:19 pm
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